The informational ghost of default in economic thinking: negative expectations experience

Abstract

The article considers the media representation of the probable default in the Russian economy and the correlation of the corresponding information wave with the consumer activity index. As economic indicators, which were compared with the data on the representation of the default theme in the media, the following were used: 1) Consumer activity index for the all-Russian sample. The median values by months were taken as baseline indicators; 2) General price inflation expectations of enterprises and their forecast, calculated by the Central Bank of Russia; 3) The official exchange rate of the dollar, set by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation in the average monthly value, as well as the exchange rate of the dollar, to the extent that it differs from the official exchange rate of the Central Bank; 4) The price of a kilogram of sugar, as a product subject to increased consumer demand against the backdrop of the spread of information about the upcoming price increase and a likely default. Based on the methods of content analysis and sentiment analysis of texts, the author comes to the conclusion that the topic of default has a clear impact on consumer behavior and the absence of such an impact on economic processes in general.